Trends in Great Lakes Temperature Extremes
The Art
The Science
In an article* commenting on a new study** regarding Great Lakes surface temperature extremes published May 15, 2025 in Communications – earth & environment:
“The Great Lakes has officially entered a new climate era, and the past is no longer a reliable guide for the future.”
According to the article here are the key takeaways of the study:
“Many changes started after El Niño event in late 1990s
Lake Superior heat waves tripled in intensity, Lake Michigan doubled
Lake Erie grappling with extreme cold snaps
The Great Lakes moderate the region’s climate, weather
Extremes impact supply chains, fisheries, coastal management
Climate change in the Great Lakes is undeniable”
*Landmark study finds Great Lakes have entered a new era with climate change, extreme events, Caitlin Looby, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, By USA Today via Reuters Connect, June 2, 20
The study** points out the risks of lake surface temperature extremes and dangers of rapid changes:
“Lake surface temperature (LST) extremes can significantly impact aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems1,2,3. Unlike the gradual long-term increase in global mean surface temperature, these events often arise abruptly, leaving little time for both human and natural systems to adapt1,4. Such events can lead to widespread species mortality, rapid long-distance range shifts, decreased aquaculture production in commercial fisheries, and even political tension over shared water bodies1,2,4,5. Over the past few decades, the frequency, duration, and intensity of LST extremes have increased1,3, with projections indicating further intensification in the future6,7. These findings collectively underscore the urgent need to study the evolution of LST extremes, including their amplification over time, within the context of a warming, yet increasingly variable, climate.” Abdelhady, H.U., Fujisaki-Manome, A., Cannon, D. et al. Climate change-induced amplification of extreme temperatures in large lakes. Commun Earth Environ 6, 375 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02341-x published May 15, 2025
Summary of Figure 4 (see graph) from study:
“All lakes showed a substantial increase in the annual low temperature extremes (10th percentile) and high temperature extremes (90th percentile) from 1970 to 2022 (Fig. 4) relative to the reference period 1941-1970. “
