Global Carbon Budget
The Art
The Graph
The term “global carbon budget” represents the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted in the future measured against a particular targeted global temperature. According to The Global Carbon Project, 2022 Summary Highlights: “…The remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5°C, 1.7°C and 2°C has respectively reduced to 380 GtCO2 (9 years at 2022 emissions levels), 730 GtCO2 (18 years) and 1230 GtCO2 (30 years)….”
“…Reaching zero CO2 emissions by 2050 entails a total anthropogenic CO2emissions linear decrease by about 1.4 GtCO2 each year, comparable to the observed fall in 2020 emissions resulting from COVID-19 measures, highlighting the scale of the action needed. This would result in additional emissions of 560 GtCO2 from year 2023, leading to a 50% likelihood to limit warming to around 1.6°C…”
However, The Global Carbon Project’s 2022 release projects that 2022 emissions will increase to 19.5 GTCO2, far greater than what would be needed to achieve those targets.
Figure Source: Friedlingstein et al, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4811–4900, 2022 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022, Published 11-11-22
